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The most common question that I get in my speaking involvement at various conferences in the region is: “What is your view of the stock market for the next year?”. It never fails to amaze me how often this question is asked time after time. And then there is the reporter’s request for a quote on what I think explained today’s movement.
The blunt reply is “I do not know, and your guess is as good as mine.” That sounds arrogant. But I am candid here. In truth, I am not trying to keep any secret to myself. All that I am saying is that nobody has the answer.
I would even go to the extent of saying that the chimps in the zoo have a good chance of being right as the “savvy” professional. The stock market is complex, confusing, not to mention perplexing, puzzling and unfathomable. This is a theme that I will keep coming back to. And because it is so complex, and nobody really has the answer. There will always be people who proclaim...