The most common question that I get in my speaking involvement at various conferences in the region is: “What is your view of the stock market for the next year?”. It never fails to amaze me how often this question is asked time after time. And then there is the reporter’s request for a quote on what I think explained today’s movement.
The blunt reply is “I do not know, and your guess is as good as mine.” That sounds arrogant. But I am candid here. In truth, I am not trying to keep any secret to myself. All that I am saying is that nobody has the answer.
I would even go to the extent of saying that the chimps in the zoo have a good chance of being right as the “savvy” professional. The stock market is complex, confusing, not to mention perplexing, puzzling and unfathomable. This is a theme that I will keep coming back to. And because it is so complex, and nobody really has the answer. There will always be people who proclaim that they know the answer and sell miracle method or secrets to you. That is why the earlier that you can comprehend that, the better it is for your portfolio. The money you can save, and as a result, the more money you can put to productive use. That will result in a better performance for your portfolio. I know that there will be some of you who thinks that it can’t be that hard, there are so many books written on this and so many people proclaiming that they have a secret formula, they can’t all be duds right.
There are two kinds of expert here that we are talking about. Those who don’t know and those who don’t know that they don’t know. Sometimes a “guru” sounds so compelling and so erudite and so convincing and so passionate that we forget that he also can be dead wrong.
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